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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.